According to Michaël van de Poppe, the Federal Reserve (FED) is a core pillar determining whether markets are in a 'risk-on' or 'risk-off' state, which is crucial for cryptocurrency investors. In a discussion highlighted in his post, he confers with @DTAPCAP, noted for recent successes with Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of Web3 infrastructure companies. This conversation underscores the direct impact of macroeconomic policies set by the FED on the performance and investment climate of the Web3 ecosystem, suggesting traders should monitor FED actions as a key indicator for market sentiment shifts.

According to @rovercrc, Bitcoin (BTC) is positioned for a potential move toward an all-time high, supported by strong macroeconomic tailwinds. Key drivers include U.S. equity indexes reaching record highs, suggesting increased investor risk appetite that could benefit alternative assets like BTC. A significant factor is the U.S. M2 money supply, which hit a record $21.94 trillion at the end of May, indicating massive liquidity that could flow into financial markets. The analysis also cites historical data showing July is a seasonally strong month for Bitcoin, with average gains of around 7%. However, there is a counter-narrative, as sources like TIOmarkets suggest that rapid M2 growth could fuel inflation, potentially pressuring the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts and creating a less favorable environment for risk assets. Current data shows BTC trading around $107,885, just below its recent 24-hour high of over $109,656.

According to @rovercrc, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant volatility, surging past $106,000 following reports of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which was later confirmed by a senior Iranian official to Reuters. The price rally followed a plunge to as low as $98,500 just 24 hours prior. Altcoins such as Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), and Solana (SOL) also saw substantial gains of 8-10%. The market relief was further supported by comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated a patient approach to interest-rate cuts. Bitunix analysts noted this stance is generally supportive of risk assets. In the derivatives market, Wintermute's OTC trader, Jake O, pointed to expectations of tight price action between $100,000 and $105,000, although call option buying for July and September suggests a modest bullish bias. Additionally, a $242 million drop in high-risk DeFi loans over two weeks signals healthier market conditions and reduced risk of liquidation cascades.

According to Omkar Godbole, Bitcoin (BTC) retreated from over $108,000 but maintains bullish momentum due to key institutional developments. Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to consider cryptocurrency holdings in mortgage criteria, potentially boosting market liquidity. The Federal Reserve advanced a plan to overhaul bank capital requirements, which could enhance credit creation for risk assets. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted the crypto market cap reached $3.31 trillion, approaching a volatility threshold that historically triggers price fluctuations. Spot BTC ETFs recorded a net inflow of $548 million for 12 consecutive days, per Farside Investors, while Metaplanet purchased an additional 1,234 BTC, reinforcing corporate adoption trends.

According to Omkar Godbole, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $108,000 before retracing, amid strong institutional catalysts. Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will consider cryptocurrency holdings for mortgage criteria, potentially boosting BTC demand. The Federal Reserve is advancing a plan to overhaul bank capital requirements, supporting risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $548 million in net inflows, marking 12 consecutive days of positive flows, as per Farside Investors. Metaplanet purchased an additional 1,234 BTC, reinforcing corporate accumulation. FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich noted the crypto market cap at $3.31 trillion is nearing a volatility threshold, with the Fear and Greed Index at 74 indicating extreme greed.

According to Omkar Godbole, Bitcoin retreated from $108,000 amid increased volatility, but bullish sentiment remains strong due to institutional adoption, including the Federal Housing Finance Agency's order to consider cryptocurrency in mortgages per Director Bill Pulte on X. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $548 million in net inflows for the 12th consecutive day, as per Farside Investors, and the crypto market cap approaches a volatility threshold at $3.31 trillion, noted by FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich. Upcoming macro events like U.S. durable goods orders could impact BTC liquidity.

According to Omkar Godbole, Bitcoin (BTC) pulled back from $108,000 despite strong institutional catalysts driving bullish sentiment. Bill Pulte, Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to consider cryptocurrency holdings in mortgage criteria, potentially increasing BTC demand, as reported. The Federal Reserve advanced plans to overhaul bank capital requirements, which could boost credit creation and support risk assets like BTC. Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro highlighted the crypto market cap nearing $3.31 trillion and a volatility threshold, with the Fear and Greed Index at 74. Spot BTC ETFs saw $548 million in net inflows, per Farside Investors, and Metaplanet added 1,234 BTC to its treasury, reinforcing corporate accumulation trends.

According to Omkar Godbole, Bitcoin retreated after briefly exceeding $108,000, but bullish catalysts persist, including the Federal Housing Finance Agency's directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to consider cryptocurrency holdings in mortgage criteria, as stated by Director Bill Pulte on X. The Federal Reserve's plan to overhaul bank capital requirements could enhance liquidity for risk assets like BTC and ETH, per market analysis. FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich noted the crypto market cap at $3.31 trillion approaches a volatility threshold, while spot BTC ETFs saw a $548 million net inflow, reported by Farside Investors. Metaplanet's additional BTC purchase and Bit Digital's shift to ETH staking signal corporate confidence.

According to Skew Δ, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's latest comments indicate that the Fed will maintain its current policy stance until a significant catalyst compels action, signaling confidence in economic data and projections for now (source: @52kskew, June 18, 2025). Powell emphasized the central bank's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. This steady approach has helped calm market volatility, with implications for cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, as traders anticipate that stable interest rates may support risk-on sentiment in the digital asset space.

According to Crypto Rover, the latest US CPI data came in at 2.4%, below the expected 2.5% (source: Crypto Rover on Twitter, June 11, 2025). This lower-than-expected inflation print is considered bullish for financial and crypto markets, signaling potential easing in Fed policy and supporting upward momentum for assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Traders should monitor BTC and ETH price action, as positive CPI surprises often trigger increased risk-on sentiment in the crypto market.

According to Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly), the market interpreted recent Federal Reserve policy commentary as an indication that monetary easing will continue, effectively suggesting the 'printer is permanently on' (source: Stock Talk, Twitter, June 4, 2025). This perception has fueled bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market, as traders anticipate increased liquidity and potential inflationary pressures, which historically drive demand for digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Market participants are closely monitoring Fed signals for further confirmation of this dovish stance, as sustained easy monetary policy is often associated with upward trends in crypto valuations.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated he is 'quite prepared' for interest rates to rise to 5% and supports the Federal Reserve's decision to delay rate cuts (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 30, 2025). Dimon also indicated preparations for a 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury Note. For crypto traders, higher rates could dampen risk appetite and liquidity, often leading to short-term volatility and potential downward pressure on Bitcoin and altcoins. Monitoring interest rate trends and Fed policy is critical for adjusting crypto trading strategies in response to shifting macroeconomic conditions.

According to Bloomberg (@business), several prominent hedge funds, including Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management, have disclosed significant short positions against US Treasuries, citing rising interest rates and inflationary pressures (source: Bloomberg, June 2024). This bearish sentiment towards government bonds is fueled by expectations of continued Federal Reserve tightening, which historically leads to bond price declines and higher yields. For crypto traders, these macro trends may drive increased volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum, as institutional investors seek alternative assets during bond market stress (source: CoinDesk, June 2024). Traders should monitor Treasury yields and Fed policy announcements closely, as shifts in bond markets can trigger capital flows into or out of digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, recent U.S. trade deals are no longer reducing bond yields, and with most tariffs already paused, inflation is nearing the 2% target (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 21, 2025). The Kobeissi Letter notes that when Trump delays or removes tariffs, treasury yields rise as recession risks are priced out by the market. This shift in yields, influenced by both Trump’s tariff policy and Fed Chair Powell’s commitment to maintaining current monetary policy, signals a risk-on sentiment that historically correlates with increased capital flows into riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. Crypto traders should closely monitor U.S. tariff and Fed policy changes, as shifts in yields and inflation expectations directly impact Bitcoin and altcoin market volatility and trading volumes.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, persistent market volatility is being fueled by a combination of tariffs, fluctuating interest rates, Federal Reserve policy, and a recent credit downgrade (Source: @KobeissiLetter, May 17, 2025). This environment presents frequent trading opportunities, as increased volatility often spills over into the cryptocurrency market, impacting Bitcoin and altcoin price swings. Crypto traders should monitor macroeconomic triggers closely, as these factors are likely to maintain heightened volatility across both traditional and digital asset markets. Staying updated with professional analysis can enhance short-term and swing trading strategies during periods of uncertainty.

According to MilkRoadDaily, investor sentiment remains bearish as participants plead with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell not to raise interest rates again. This widespread concern stems from repeated dip-buying with continued portfolio losses, as highlighted in their viral post on May 7, 2025 (source: MilkRoadDaily Twitter). Higher rates typically strengthen the US dollar and put downward pressure on both crypto and stock markets, leading to reduced liquidity and risk appetite. Traders should closely monitor upcoming Fed statements, as any indication of a rate hike could trigger further volatility and downside for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and related altcoins.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US goods trade deficit surged by $14 billion month-over-month, reaching a record $162 billion in March 2025 and surpassing expectations by $17 billion (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, April 30, 2025). Imports climbed 5% to $343 billion, mainly due to higher consumer goods inflows. This significant widening of the trade deficit signals increased pressure on the US dollar and could trigger heightened volatility in forex and crypto markets, particularly as traders assess inflationary risks and potential Fed policy responses. Market participants should monitor USD pairs and Bitcoin correlation as capital flows may shift in reaction to this macroeconomic development.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Goldman's basket of stocks specifically designed to perform well during stagflationary environments has continued to soar, as new data confirms worsening stagflation in 2025. The report highlights a combination of rising inflation and a weakening economy, placing the Federal Reserve in a challenging position with limited policy solutions (source: @KobeissiLetter, April 30, 2025). For traders, this signals increased volatility and potential opportunities in sectors historically resilient to stagflation, such as commodities and defensive equities. Close monitoring of inflation data and Fed policy responses is essential for informed trading strategies.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Nasdaq has experienced a significant drop of nearly 900 points since Monday's high, after a previous rise of 2,400 points from its April 7th low. This downturn is linked to Fed Chair Powell's recent statements indicating that the 'Fed put' will not be supporting the market in the near future. This development has potential implications for cryptocurrency traders, as changes in traditional market conditions can influence crypto market trends. Traders should closely monitor Fed policy announcements as they strategize future trades.

According to Richard Teng, if inflation trends downward or the job market weakens, the Federal Reserve could rapidly change its policy stance, affecting market expectations. Markets are currently adjusting to an anticipated delay in policy shifts, but this state is temporary and represents a recalibration (source: Richard Teng, Twitter, February 25, 2025).